Opposition to the monarchy in Britain now exceeds the anti-royal sentiment witnessed during the crisis over in a worrying sign for Britain’s new sovereign .
Prince Harry and ‘s bombshell allegations against the royals in 2021 appeared to on growing dissatisfaction with the British royal family among young people, against the backdrop of .
In the intervening three years, this trend appears to have cemented itself and even worsened, with little sign of a snap back to the reverence of past eras.
In November, a poll by Savanta on behalf of anti-monarchy campaign group Republic showed 34 percent of British people wanted a democratically elected head of state compared to 52 percent who wanted a monarchy.
However, among 18-24 year olds, 49 percent wanted to scrap the royals compared with 36 percent who wanted to retain the monarchy.
Commentators have been divided on whether this spells a long-term crisis that could threaten the future of the monarchy, if those Gen Z royal skeptics retain their opposition into later life, or whether, in time, they will simply fall in love with royal fairy tales all over again.
One argument in favor of a healthy royal future is that the institution has survived many a crisis before, including a popularity slump in the post-Diana era.
However, closer analysis of historic data by Regalrumination.com shows that the November polling may actually be significantly worse than those past eras and effects a different section of society—which all means nothing can be taken for granted.
What the Polls Said Then
Charles was hugely popular in Britain up until revelations about his affair with Queen Camilla sent his popularity plummeting in the 1990s.
The monarchy as an institution reached an initial low ebb just before Princess Diana’s death, in July 1997, when just 39 percent of people felt Britain would be worse off without a royal family in a poll by Ipsos.
This represented a sharp decline from the 1980s and the early 1990s when, according to The Guardian, multiple ICM polls returned figures north of 70 percent for the same question.
However, the decline was largely driven by disinterest, with just 12 percent saying in July 1997 that the U.K. would be better off without the royals and 43 percent saying losing them would make no difference.
The monarchy recovered for a period after Diana died in a car crash in Paris but slumped again a few years later in 2000 when The Guardian declared “support for the royal family has fallen to its lowest level in modern times.”
An ICM poll commissioned by the newspaper suggested only 44 percent of the British public felt the country would be worse off without the monarchy while 29 percent answered “don’t know.”
This time, though, there was a larger spike in opposition, with between 25 percent and 30 percent believing Britain would be better off without the monarchy.
The newspaper also described dissatisfaction among the young as the “highest ever” because 40 percent of 18-24 year olds thought the country would be better off without the monarchy compared with 24 percent who though it would be worse off.
At the time, calls for the crown to skip Charles and pass straight to were felt most strongly among the poorest British people, or in polling terms “social class DE,” with 48 percent favoring such a move compared to 38 percent who opposed it.
However, much of this opposition appeared to dissolve when a further poll by Ipsos a month later in June 2000 asked the more blunt question whether Britain should abolish the monarchy and become a republic.
Asked in those terms, 70 percent wanted to keep the crown compared to 19 percent who wanted the U.K. to become a republic.
As The Guardian noted at the time: “It is a growing indifference to the royal family rather than a rise in republicanism that is responsible for the spectacular slide in royal popularity.”
What the Polls Say Now
The picture is far bleaker now precisely because it is the more direct question that polling agencies have been asking.
There are other factors though that hint the root of the current crash in royal popularity may be far more complex and therefore far more difficult to solve.
Age remains the factor most likely to determine opposition to monarchy, with 49 percent of Gen Z wanting to become a republic, but social class is again a factor.
However, while working class people drove a backlash against Charles previously, it is now affluent Brits from “social class AB” who are more divided, with 43 percent wanting to scrap the monarchy and 45 percent wanting to keep it.
This compares with 28 percent of social class DE favoring a republic and 58 percent wanting to stick with the monarchy.
Graham Smith, chief executive of Republic, a pressure group pushing to abolish the monarchy, told Regalrumination.com: “A lot of it has to do with the scandal and changing attitudes around social issues and issues of social justice and historic justice and that sort of thing which has thrown a spotlight on the royals in relation to and Harry and Meghan.
“A lot of it is just about changing attitudes and I think the long-term trend of people losing interest has made it easier for people to turn against. If people are younger and middle class they are more likely to be taking seriously things like the environment and social justice and Me Too and and that sort of thing.
“They look at the monarchy and they just can’t see themselves reflected back in that.”
Analysis
It is surprisingly easy to chart the course of the royal family’s recovery in the 2000s, because “social class DE,” who were most dissatisfied with Charles, were also most enamored some years later when Prince William married in 2011, according to an Ipsos poll that April. Some 59 percent of working class Brits said they were interested in the wedding, more than any other social class.
One aspect to the Charles and Diana story that separates it from modern royal conflicts is how definitive the verdict on Charles’ infidelity was.
The king, then Prince of Wales, was accused of an affair, he admitted it on TV and the country backed Diana. People became disinterested in monarchy for a period but Kate and William cured their apathy by providing a new royal fairy tale to become excited about.
The Next Generation
Currently, there is a younger generation of royals waiting in the wings who have won the public’s affections in the form of , and .
That of course raises the possibility of another refresh down the line when they are old enough to be working royals in 10 to 15 years time.
However, there are further differences between the current scandals and the collapse of Charles’ marriage to Princess Diana.
Young people who swung against monarchy have not swung behind Harry and Meghan, with 38 percent of 18 to 24-year-olds liking compared with 46 percent who disliked him in You Gov polling in May.
While Harry and Meghan’s allegations do appear to have triggered a spike in anti-royal sentiment, it is not simply that Gen Z are team Harry and therefore there is nothing to indicate they will flock back to the monarchy once they have a new, untarnished generation of royals to support. This time, they appear to have turned against both accuser and accused.
Complex Challenges Facing Charles’ Monarchy
Reading detailed explanations into polling is a fraught business as the data does not point to exactly why people feel the way they do.
One worthwhile theory, though, has surfaced in separate analysis of the changing attitudes of young people in the modern world.
Millennials, now in their late 20s and 30s, have not swung to the right politically to the extent past generations have, holding onto their more radical, progressive views, according to research by the Financial Times.
In 2022, journalist John Burn-Murdoch identified polling data suggesting today’s 35-year-olds are the most progressive on record.
He had expected, based on historic trends, that they should be five points less conservative than the national average but noted: “In fact, they’re more like 15 points less conservative, and in both Britain and the US are by far the least conservative 35-year-olds in recorded history.”
He argued the reason stems from the shared experience of economic hardship forged in the 2008 financial crash.
There is a new economic downturn now too and growing “Eat the Rich” sentiment can be seen in culture, from TV shows like White Lotus to Succession.
The backlash against celebrities and nepo babies, as children of the rich and famous are known, also lends context to the trials of the modern royal family.
Even and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson last year for urging ordinary people to donate to a disaster fund after the Maui wildfires despite their own considerable incomes.
The economic outlook for young people is bad and getting worse, with wage growth failing to keep pace with inflation and the cost of university fees rising. It is also becoming increasingly difficult to buy a first home.
Young middle class people therefore face the prospect they may not achieve the lifestyle and comfort of their parents’ generation even before the impact of AI on the job market and climate change are factored into their futures.
“We know from other research showing that people are not becoming more conservative as they get older, which is to do with the fact the people aren’t so well invested in society as they get older because they’re not so well off and buying houses and so on,” Smith said.
“So I think it’s a general antipathy towards the status quo. If you lose interest you might just remain passively okay with the monarchy but not interested,” he said. “But if you turn off it and oppose it then it’s going to be much harder to turn them back.
“They’ve turned it around in the past when they had the queen there and when its just Charles and William and when they’re facing protests it’s going to be very different.”
The economic backdrop appears to be fueling resentment towards people who have achieved power through privilege and inheritance, rather than by striving through hardship.
Yet the core essence of monarchy is built entirely around inherited power in a way that simply cannot be undone without scrapping the whole system.
Smith said he believes support for keeping the monarchy in Britain could drop below 50 percent by the end of the decade.
It is interesting that it is middle class young people in particular who are driving the swing against monarchy, no doubt armed with critical thinking skills learned at university.
Disengaged working class people fell back in love with the monarchy when William and Kate’s relationship took the country by storm because they never stopped wanting the royal fairy tale. The problem was simply that the fairy tale had been shattered and they were in need of a new one, which arrived in due course.
If the current disaffection among young middle class people is partly fueled by resentment at the economic deal they have been offered, it is less clear why a new generation of royals would relieve them of those difficult feelings.
And if so, that spells bad news for the palace and good news for Smith and his pressure group.
Jack Royston is Regalrumination.com‘s chief royal correspondent based in London. You can find him on X, formerly , at and read his stories on Regalrumination.com’s
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