The royals lined up for the king’s birthday last weekend. Center stage was Kate Middleton, the Princess of Wales, making an unexpected return to the limelight after last being seen in public on Christmas Day 2023. Now receiving treatment for an unspecified kind of cancer, her presence made the day’s events and gave a powerful reminder of just how powerful a figure this 42-year-old woman now is in the life of the nation. But who else is up, and who’s down?

What? How could anyone be more powerful than the king? Until the beginning of this year, any royal power list would have put King Charles at the top. 

But his illness has changed things, and focused insiders’ minds on the simple fact that given his age, the reign of King Charles will necessarily be a relatively short one, even if he makes a full recovery from the cancer he is currently valiantly fighting.

Unlike Charles, who was widely believed at various moments in his apprenticeship as Prince of Wales to want his mother to abdicate so he could take over, and did indeed lobby for and seize more control in the last years of her reign, William is not pushing for increased responsibilities.

 On the contrary, he and Catherine are distraught at the idea of his destiny being forced upon him before their children finish school. 

They are quite happy living in the modest confines of their four-bedroom home, Adelaide Cottage, and have no desire to relocate to either Royal Lodge (assuming Prince Andrew can be evicted) or what is assumed will be their final home, Windsor Castle.

Yet as one source says, “There is a sense that William has stepped into the Prince Philip role. Philip ruled the family with a rod of iron and you saw when he died that discipline collapsed. Now William is calling the shots when it comes to family discipline. He can be scary!”

The most notable effect of his role as enforcer is the absolute ban on Harry returning in any way, shape, or form to the family fold. Charles would like to see more of Prince Harry, but William, who still refuses to even speak to his brother, isn’t having any of it, and that, says the source, “tells you everything you need to know about who is really in charge.”

William’s rise does not mean the king is a lame duck. He is still an immensely powerful figure whose word is (sometimes literally) law, who can get anyone in the world on the phone with a click of his fingers. 

His recent return to public work has been nothing short of miraculous, given that he is suffering from cancer and undergoing treatment for the disease, and his surging popularity figures tell their own story.

However, his diagnosis (and sometimes frail appearance) has thrown into stark relief the reality of his age. Charles’ staff are loyal, devoted, and unbelievably hard-working (they have to be to keep up with the boss), and yet insiders saw how ruthlessly Queen Elizabeth’s staff were dispatched at the change of reign two years ago. Some staff are said to be considering making a move before it is forced on them, potentially weakening Charles’ power base further.

The upcoming British general election poses no threat to the monarchy; likely incoming Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been keen to wrap himself in the Royal Standard at every opportunity.

Kate’s absence from the royal fold for six months has only served to show how important she is. Without her, the royal family doesn’t have much to offer in terms of razzle-dazzle. One royal source told The Daily Beast that last weekend’s Trooping the Colour ceremony was the monarchy’s best day since the coronation—that is owing to Kate’s presence.

But Kate is much more than a mere show pony. For example, her work on Early Childhood—which she has said she wants to be her signature issue—is already affecting government policy and thinking.

Kate’s global power was demonstrated when she managed to shame the entire internet into dropping its conspiracy theories with her cancer revelation video. There are, however, limits to Kate’s power—even she seems unable to get the world to call her Catherine (although we are trying).

Fame: 95% Popularity: 71%

Prince Harry and Meghan Markle

Harry and Meghan’s ability to be thorns in the royal side, even in exile, means this couple still wield enormous power, even if it is only the power to disrupt.

There are encouraging signs that both sides are ready to call a truce, if not agree to a peace, in terms of the feud which has made Harry and Meghan a lot of money through their books and TV shows, but damaged reputations on both sides. The trouble is that it’s just such a compelling story, and so easy for everyone in the entire world to relate to—what family hasn’t had a stupid argument get totally out of hand—that having let the genie out of the bottle, it’s proving tricky to stuff it back in again.

Harry and Meghan’s unofficial tour of Nigeria sent shivers down the establishment’s spine because it showed how easily Meghan and Harry could set up a rival court.

Imagine for the sake of argument that half of all British people and those who follow the royal story closely, globally, number about 100 million individuals. This is a generous estimate of the number of people who properly understand that Meghan and Harry are not “real” royals anymore. But to the other 98 percent of the 5 billion people estimated to use social media globally, there is absolutely no difference in status between Harry and Meghan and William and Kate, except that Harry and Meghan are a lot more outrageous—and interesting.

Harry: Fame: 100% Popularity: 34%

Meghan: Fame: 94% Popularity: 26%

Duchess Sophie

Prince Edward’s glamorous wife, Sophie, more than makes up for his rather feeble persona. With a background in PR, she is probably one of the best-liked members of the royal family among the gigantic web of people who deal with them. Phrases often heard in connection with Sophie include: kind, considerate, loyal, and, over and over again, “just so nice.”

An early mistake that saw her entrapped by investigative journalist Mazher Mahmood in his famous Fake Sheikh disguise and tricked into saying disrespectful things about the queen has been erased by the subsequent arrest and jailing of Mahmood. The late queen clearly got over it; Sophie was a great favorite and friend of Her Majesty’s, one of the few non-blood relatives whisked to Balmoral to be at her death bed. Charles has not just maintained her position but elevated her further; assigning her husband the title Duke of Edinburgh was just as much about making her the Duchess.

Fame: 81% Popularity: 48%

Prince Louis

Prince Louis

What would a royal party be without Prince Louis’ charming antics? Whether he is pulling a funny face or dancing on the spot, Louis is the fellow who puts a smile in the public’s hearts. Beloved of the TikTok generation in particular, the challenge for the royal family now is to find a role for the clearly feisty Louis that doesn’t end up with another “spare” disaster.

Stats: Not polled

Sarah Ferguson

Fergie long ago presented the royals with now Harry and Meghan shaped problems. The issues are not exactly the same—Fergie never denounced the family in public—but the terrain is similar. Prince Philip couldn’t abide her and she was frozen out for decades, but after his death Queen Elizabeth shrewdly brought her into the royal tent. Her power now derives largely from the fact that she is almost the only person Prince Andrew listens to.

Stats: Not polled

Princess Anne

Princess Anne

Famously the hardest working royal, Anne has sometimes had a better relationship with the institution of monarchy than with its individual members due to her brusque manner. Her profound influence on the institution is remarkable as a result. Either she is made in the monarchy’s image or the monarchy is made in hers; it doesn’t really matter at this stage; the two are indistinguishable. Her children Zara and Peter redound on her to her credit.

Fame: 93% Popularity: 65%

Queen Camilla

Camilla’s friends will tell you she never wanted to be queen, and she certainly doesn’t act like being queen is the fulfillment of her life’s desires. She is happiest in the background and although she had to step up and take a more center-stage role when Charles was not doing public duties, and was proud to do so, she didn’t enjoy it much, friends say.

Her position is complicated by the fact that William privately has his reservations about his stepmother, as elucidated in Harry’s book, Spare. He has got over them, or at least put them to one side, but if she outlives Charles, don’t expect to see much of her in the new William era. Some reports have recently suggested that the real reason Charles wants Andrew out of Royal Lodge is so Camilla has a suitably prestigious home after he goes.

Fame: 95% Popularity: 43%

Prince Edward

Although uncharismatic, Edward has youth on his side at the age of 60. While some men follow their destiny, others (wisely) follow their wives. Could yet mature into a kind of inoffensive national treasure.

Fame: 95% Popularity: 57%

Prince Andrew

Reintegrated further into the royal fold than could ever have seemed possible two years ago, Andrew, one friend says, “will never give up” on his dreams of having his position reinstated. For now, however, they remain just that.

Fame: 97% Popularity: 9%

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